When do the Royals start playing the good teams?

Re: The Sweep: Nothing like taking a sharp hoe and putting some real pressure on the ugly neck of a snake in the grass in order to let him know he's DOOMED.

OK.

Here's the problem with predictions and statistical projection systems: They naturally rely too heavily on what's already happened in the past. That's why teams like Colorado last year and Detroit a few years ago take unexpected leaps forward, especially as young players are involved. These teams are called SURPRISES. But every year we have SURPRISE teams in all of the major sports and the NCAA Tournament. You can COUNT on SURPRISES. It's not very SURPRISING at all when a SURPRISE team surfaces. And the Royals do train in a town called SURPRISE.

History and geology are full of surprises. Pearl Harbor was a surprise. It was a surprise when Mount St. Helens blew as big as it blew, even though the damn thing had been smoking and generating small earthquakes for a long time. It was a surprise when we found out Dick Cheney shot that old guy in the face. It was a surprise when that BIG wooden horse had a bunch of guys stashed inside of it. We're pretty sure it was a surprise to scientists when the first Atom Bomb was actually detonated in the New Mexico desert, even though they had equations to tell them what to expect. It was actually a surprise to some people that a Category 4 hurricane could flood New Orleans. AND it was a surprise when the Detroit Tigers vaunted 2008 offense got stalled right out of the gate by bunch of guys with names like Meche, Bannister, Greinke, Nunez and Soria.

Most of these surprises are followed quickly by a quantum leap in understanding. That new level of understanding then becomes the basis for what causes us to be surprised by the next BIG thing that happens. Making serious predictions about largely unpredictable things is mostly a fool's game, unless you get paid for it. And usually the best signs of what's going to happen next are obscured by group think. But the signs are always there, if you care to have a little fool’s fun.

Potential surprise teams are always two or three years away from actually contending, until they actually do it. For now, the Royals are contending just fine. Next week, we'll go back to talking about them still being two or three years away. Maybe.

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CONFESSION: Big Donkeys roots harder for the Artist Known as Zack Greinke and for Moneyball Mark Teahen than anyone else since Clint Hurdle. Yes, we named this blog after Billy Butler. But he's a sure thing.

ALEX GORDON, with his old fashioned home runs, is proving to be a BIG rally killer.

Keep working the count, Alex. We never doubted you.

P.S. The Tigers have tons of right-handed hitters. The best way to attack them is with strong right-handed pitching. Obviously, the Royals have had some strong right-handed pitching so far.

(PREDICTION ALERT: The economy is about ready to seriously tank. Better figure out that whole energy thing SOON.)